The effects of international tariffs are being felt at the Port of Oakland, which saw a 10.1% drop in overall shipping volume in June compared to the previous month. Rather than just a blip or temporary downturn, port leaders are saying the latest data could be an early indicator of a new shipping economy shaped by tariffs.
The drop-off in shipping volume has sparked concern among longshoremen union leaders who say the lowest-tiered workers at the port are at risk of losing hours. Meanwhile, port leaders say the long-term economic ramifications are not yet clear.
“We’ve not seen the full effect of it yet,” said Carolyn Almquist, maritime marketing manager for the Port of Oakland. “We’re just talking to customers every day about how their business is going, what their projections are. Trying to look into that crystal ball.”
The port had largely avoided the effects of tariffs in 2025 as overseas manufacturers and producers rushed to ship their inventory into the United States before President Donald Trump announced near-universal tariffs on other countries’ goods. While the port has recorded a 0.6% increase year-over-year thanks to that early flurry of activity, port officials expect numbers to worsen as tariffs continue.
But the port’s trading partners — particularly China, which is one of the port’s largest importers and exporters of goods — reduced imports in June as new trade deals remain sparse on details, incomplete or highly-tariffed.
Despite June’s decline, year-to-date container volume remains higher than the same period last year. Total volume registered 1.14 million TEUs, marking a 0.6% increase over June 2024.
Tariffs have seesawed this year between the world’s two largest economies. Trump announced 10% tariffs on all goods from China on Feb. 1. When China announced it would respond with retaliatory tariffs on Feb. 27, the president announced an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. The trade war reached its peak in April when the White House announced 145% tariffs on China, while the Chinese announced 125% tariffs on American-made goods. The countries backed down a month later, with the U.S. agreeing to reduce the tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, and China lowering tariffs on the U.S. from 125% to 10%.
Port of Oakland Maritime Director Bryan Brandes said it’s clear that the current data represents more than the typical up-and-down trends that the industry sometimes sees.
“This is not a seasonal dip, but a market recalibration,” he said. “Importers and exporters are adjusting their supply chain timing and routing decisions in response to evolving conditions.”
That’s what worries Demetrius Williams, president of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union, Local 10. Longshoremen are uniquely sensitive to falling trading volumes, he said, and because they are generally hourly rather than salaried, changes in trading volume could impact the lowest-tiered workers within the union. Members known as “A-men” are given first priority for available jobs, then “B-men,” and then “casuals,” — the last of whom are most at risk of having their hours cut.
“With container volumes growing smaller, it’s definitely alarming for the future of longshoremen,” Williams said. “The bells are ringing. With tariffs on the rise – and we get that all businesses need to make a profit to be successful – all the people who rely on port shipments are at risk.”
Longshore workers’ hours have been insulated from the effect of tariffs due to cruises docking at terminals this year, Williams said. But imports and exports are the most consistent source of hours, and there’s always a possibility that work could slow down.
Almquist said that in the current climate of market uncertainty, the port will seek to be proactive rather than reactive in its dealing with both Washington, D.C. policymakers and its Asian trading partners. She said port terminals have extended their hours in order to maintain the flow of cargo through the Bay Area — a move that has buffeted longshore workers from seeing their hours cut.
“We’re expecting July will show higher numbers. I mean, we’re definitely concerned. We just don’t like the uncertainty at all,” Almquist said. “Importers and exporters are saying we’re moving forward. Yes, we’ve had to adjust, but we’re doing our best.”